06/18/2024, 5:36 am EDT

Hot Weather Persists Northeast Quadrant of U.S. Next 4-6 Weeks (At Least)

The first high impact climate regime of summer 2024 develops before the arrival of the core of hurricane season. There is support, based on evolution of an intense marine heatwave east of New England, to apply the week 1-4 and week 5-6 ahead upper air and sensible weather forecasts from ECMWF to a long-term hot and dry pattern for the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast U.S. Corridor warranting drought development accelerated by persistent heat waves.
06/16/2024, 9:22 am EDT

Western Corn Belt Flooding; Eastern Corn Belt Drought Risk. Southern Texas Drought Erased.

Late spring into early summer produces substantial flooding from extreme rains already occurring in Southern Florida and shifting into Texas later this week extending northward to the Midwest U.S. However, areas north and east of these heavy rain zones have the opposite problem likely to last well into the summer season, lack of significant rain and steady anomalous heat casual to increased drought risk from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States. By late summer, a shift in tropical rains should ease drought in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
06/16/2024, 9:14 am EDT

Trouble Brewing In The Western Gulf of Mexico

The historic rainfall flooding Southern Florida during the past week is easing. “Historic” in that the extreme rain was not associated with a tropical cyclone. The low-pressure zone and wet trade winds are shifting westward this week. However, this time a tropical cyclone will enhance the rainfall and bring flooding to the northwest and west coast of the Gulf of Mexico.
06/16/2024, 9:08 am EDT

With La Nina and Potential -IOD Ahead Australia Returns to Wet Climate Pattern

Expected later this year as an evolving La Nina climate and several global SSTA forecast models are now projecting negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole. The combination of La Nina and -IOD climate ahead supports a wet pattern in Australia by springtime especially eastern sections.