Expected later this year as an evolving La Nina climate and several global SSTA forecast models are now projecting negative phase of the Indian Ocean dipole. The combination of La Nina and -IOD climate ahead supports a wet pattern in Australia by springtime especially eastern sections.

Once again, Climate Impact Company raises the U.S. population weight CDD forecast for each month of meteorological summer (Fig. 1). The new forecast is the hottest so far and slowly getting closer to the hottest on record this century. Anticipated electricity demand on the U.S. grid is on the increase.

Meteorological spring (MAR/APR/MAY) 2024 was the 10th warmest on record. A record warm spring was observed in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The entire South, East-central, and East U.S. was MUCH ABOVE normal and included the second warmest spring on record for Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Michigan, West Virginia, Virginia, Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Texas.

To the north of a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico and to the east of an approaching cold front and beneath strengthening subtropical ridging an area of “major” heat is forecast by NOAA centered on Iowa and the Mid-south U.S. on Sunday June 16. The maximum temperature in the “major” heat risk area is well into the 90’s with heat index to the 100-105F range. Sunday is the peak heat day. However, temperatures could be nearly as hot for most of next week.

Europe and Western Russia are the target of extreme weather and climate conditions through the spring season. On May 7, Moscow declared a state of emergency for crop conditions due to damage suffered during many freeze events occurring in early-to-mid May. Not helping is the long-term lack of precipitation in the Eastern Black Sea region throughout Southwest Russia. Conversely, much of Europe is soaking wet since March 1.

The 2024 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season is forecast to potentially be the most active on record given the unusually warm North Atlantic Ocean surface and anticipated evolving La Nina climate. Given this scenario, concern is increasing regarding a wet climate (due to tropical activity) in the Gulf of Mexico and the latent heat release of that convective rain northward to cause the atmosphere to warm and high pressure to form in the Ohio Valley where EDDI shows drought potential.

Entering June 2024, ENSO is in neutral phase. The trend toward (expected) La Nina is apparent, but barely. Needed are stronger trade winds to up-well anomalous cool waters east of 140W longitude in teh equatorial Pacific to cool surface temperatures and cause them to extend westward to initial La Nina. We have a way to go before that happens.