06/26/2024, 2:56 pm EDT

How Is AIFS Doing Vs. Other Forecast Models? Some Preliminary Results

To evaluate AI forecasts, some preliminary verification results are recently available. The verification presented is for climate signal forecasts for the 6-10-day period from the past 30 days. Evaluated is the mean average error (MAE) for North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), Pacific North America (PNA) index, East Pacific oscillation (EPO), and West Pacific Oscillation (WPO).
06/26/2024, 6:00 am EDT

Far Southern Brazil Coffee Freeze Risk Sunday

The first freeze risk to the far southern coffee-growing areas in Southeast Brazil receive their first freeze threat of winter on Sunday June 30th. GFS projects -1C to -3C in the extreme southern coffee areas. The 7-day outlook identifies the cold anomaly across Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil.
06/25/2024, 8:20 am EDT

La Nina Development Stalls

The Nino34 SSTA located in the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed to +0.3C last week. The 30-day southern oscillation index (SOI) average is an El Nino-like -0.66 and projected to finish June at the -0.50 El Nino threshold. Upper ocean heat in the equatorial Pacific was at a cool peak, supportive of La Nina development 2-3 months ago. Since that time the cool anomaly to support La Nina has lost half of its intensity.
06/25/2024, 8:13 am EDT

Rapid Drought Development Warning Issued for Mid-south, Southern Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic

As stated on several occasions via soil moisture observations and trend and yesterday’s 2-5-week outlook, conditions for developing and expanding drought in the U.S. are favorable. NOAA/CPC identified specific regions in an alert issued late yesterday. They are eastern Oklahoma, the southern Missouri Valley, southern Ohio Valley to the western Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic region.