04/29/2024, 7:49 pm EDT
The Climate Impact Company North Atlantic basin seasonal tropical cyclone season forecast for 2024 is updated. Tracking the trend of ENSO and North Atlantic SSTA, the two primary predictors, is why the forecast is updated.
News
04/29/2024, 5:08 am EDT
Siding with the AI 4Cast Net V2 forecast direction heading into mid-May. Why? Cooling of the western North Atlantic as previously stated last week. NCEP CFS V2 is the operational model capturing this philosophy. The model is substantially cooler than ECM. A marked cool change is indicated for the Midwest U.S. with a southern shift from Canada to the Mid-south States of the wet weather belt. A major change!
04/28/2024, 11:59 am EDT
Dynamic meteorological models generally have increased error during the cold-to-warm transition season. The 30-day skill scores of leading models are generally consistent with long-term averages for this time of year. However, the short-term (7-day) forecast skill has recently lowered.
04/26/2024, 4:35 am EDT
A super warm global ocean surface is in the news! However, not all oceanic zones are warm. Norte the 1-year change in the western North Atlantic. The western North Atlantic has cooled to near normal during mid-spring. The cooling waters foreshadow presence of an upper trough on the East Coast for much of May.