News
01/21/2024, 11:40 am EST

Madden Julian Oscillation Inspires Atmospheric River Storm Track To Develop

What is an atmospheric river? A large and narrow stream of high intensity moisture extending from tropical influences pushed by the jet stream across mid-latitude land masses. The North Pacific atmospheric river is the most famous (and effective). What causes an atmospheric river to form? The best way to create an atmospheric river is the phasing (or connection) between the storm track propelled by the subtropical jet stream and increased heavy convection in the deep tropics enhanced by presence of large areas of strong vertical currents known as the positive (or convection) phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO).
01/17/2024, 8:03 pm EST

Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Cooling Underway as El Nino 2023-24 Likely Moving Past Mature Stage Soon

El Nino 2023-24 roars on but signs of weakening ahead have emerged. Cooling subsurface waters in the West Pacific have shifted east of the Dateline during January. Warm waters just beneath the surface of the equatorial Pacific to sustain El Nino remain, but the emerging cool waters are likely to expand and weaken/dissipate Pacific surface warming over the next several months. Expect neutral ENSO during Q2/2024 and La Nina by Q3/2024.