The Nino SSTA regions (and subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean) indicate a warming trend in the already very warm central and east-central Pacific equatorial region (Nino34 and Nino4). Implied is an approaching peak of El Nino forecast by most dynamic models in December or January followed by weakening El Nino the first half of 2024.

Heavy rain along a low-pressure trough stretches through East Australia today. The wet pattern has no end in sight as a supporting upper-level low-pressure area coupled with the surface trough persists the remainder of November. Forecast models are in good agreement on a widespread 2-6-inch rainfall for Eastern Australia through the next 15 days.