La Nina is moderate-to-strong enjoying a 3rd peak in intensity of the 2020-22 cold ENSO regime. However, dynamic and statistical ENSO phase forecast models are agreeable to La Nina ending in early 2023 coinciding with demise of negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD). However, the La Nina climate is unusually strong and could linger to the mid-point of 2023. El Nino remains a possibility for later 2023.

The daily southern oscillation index crashed to -3.6 earlier today. The daily -SOI value is the lowest since Aug. 17, 2022, a one-day event. The last very negative SOI regime dates back to June 2020. The -SOI may last a few days due to passage of Madden Julian oscillation episode. Moderate-to-strong La Nina presence may weaken slightly during this transaction.

Will La Nina end during early 2023 as most dynamic/statistical models indicate? We’ve faced this question at the same time in 2021 and 2020. On each occasion, dynamic/statistical models were satisfied that the preceding La Nina would be compensated for by El Nino the following year. Instead, multivariate ENSO index maintained a strengthening La Nina climate.