Based on ECMWF, Europe has a drought problem for upcoming summer. Dry-to-drought soil conditions are already developing. ECMWF shifts an amplified upper ridge over Western Europe into mid-July eastward to Central/East Europe for late July into August. In the U.S., the upper ridge is suppressed by an emerging eastern North America upper trough the next 2 weeks. However, the Central/Midwest U.S. ridge re-emerges in August.

A high-pressure ridge is forecast to take hold of the Europe climate pattern later in July and promote dry and hot climate to worsen already established dry soils. Expanding drought is in the forecast for Europe during mid-summer!