June 2022 - Page 2 of 5 - Climate Impact Company

News

06/26/2022, 8:54 am EDT

Model Verification Indicates Recent Cooler/Wetter U.S. Forecasts Are Overstated

Recent forecasts for the medium range particularly by GFS have turned somewhat cooler after a nationally hot June pattern (so far). The hot June observations (so far) have been driven in-part by a wide area of soil moisture deficits and a drier Eastern U.S. trend. Consequently, the GFS is verifying too cool in the Midwest States (and too warm in the West). Most models have also been biased too wet North-central and East in June.

06/24/2022, 8:13 am EDT

Dangerously Warm Northern Gulf of Mexico SST

The northern Gulf of Mexico SST pattern has warmed to 85-88F (29-31C) in June. Daily SSTA analysis reveals these values are 3-4C warmer than normal. During the recent (2016-21) North Atlantic basin active tropical cyclone period when seasonal tropical storm average has exceeded 19 (normal is near 14), tropical cyclones moving into the western or northern Gulf of Mexico across 87F/31C SST (Harvey, Michael, Laura, Delta and Ida) have transitioned into category-4 major hurricanes just-before making landfall.

06/24/2022, 8:08 am EDT

Increasing Risk of Development for 94L

In the outer tropical North Atlantic basin a tropical disturbance (94L) is drifting due west with some organization. SST are sufficiently warm in this low latitude to sustain 94L and the shear axis is well to the north and showing signs of weakening.

06/23/2022, 4:30 pm EDT

U.S. Summer 2022 CDD Count Eased Back As High Population Coastal Regions Adjusted Cooler

The latest monthly U.S. population weight CDD anomaly forecast shifts cooler than the 2019-21 normal as the outlooks are hot in the Central U.S. including Texas but trend less hot/cooler on each (high population) coastal region(s).