The NCEP CFS V2 forecast model delays La Nina dissipation until early summer 2021 (in the northern hemisphere). Previously, La Nina was forecast to dissipate by MAR/APR 2022.
The Climate Impact Company 4-week gas population weight observed weekly HDD anomalies identifiers the warm December but is trending toward a colder scenario in January.
While much of Brazil has been soaking wet in recent months, the southeast has remained mostly dry. Additionally, long-term rainfall deficits imply deep layer soil moisture dryness. Northeast Argentina is trending very dry and hot to help accelerate drought concerns.
The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast is exceptionally warm for winter 2021-22. The problem is the high energy demand Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States are generally quite mild this winter limiting heating demand in that region while other sectors such as the West and North-central States can be very cold. The impact of sensible weather is driven by population.