Dynamic models indicate that possibility while a constructed analog keeps ENSO in neutral phase. We’re in the ENSO prediction barrier right now, when ENSO forecast skill is low. Close monitoring of ENSO is required during the next few months.

Right now, the leaning-edge of a Kelvin Wave shifting through the eastern equatorial Pacific during the past few weeks has weakened just before reaching the northwest coast of South America. A new Kelvin Wave has strengthened and shifted just east of the Dateline. A westerly wind burst associated with the new Kelvin Wave is present just west of the Dateline.