The building Midwest and Interior Northeast/Mid-Atlantic snow cover this week helps to enhance the cold pattern in place for PJM the next 10 days which may moderate in the 11-15-day period or possibly turn warmer than normal.
Building convection centered over the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and Maritime Continent initiated in early November, strengthened mid-November, and reached peak intensity during late November. During peak intensity, 2 unusually late season tropical cyclones formed including Senyar striking Western Indonesia and Ditmar moving into Southern India. Extreme rains caused historic flooding and mudslides killing 100’s in Western Indonesia with similar damage and fatalities confined to Southern India.
A substantial part of the Northern U.S. is affected by a combination of winter storm warnings and watch areas including Lake-effect Snow Warnings valid for today and tomorrow. Jackpot snowfall amounts stretch from North Dakota to Iowa today/tonight (4-6 inches) increasing to 6-14 inches Iowa to Indiana (and centered on Chicago) tomorrow.
The latest Climate Impact Company constructed analog climate forecast for meteorological summer 2025-26 has changed. The outlook is drier across East Australia and hotter across Southeast/South-central Australia. The anomalous heat and dryness in this region indicate expanding drought is likely.