An evolving strong negative Scandinavia (-SCAND) index develops over Northwest Eurasia the remainder of November causing a colder pattern-change most notable next week and possibly lingering to late month. -SCAND is the catalyst to expanding snow cover, well below normal now, but expanding across Scandinavia to the Baltic Region and much of Western Russia in 15 days.

Today’s week 4-6 outlook by ECM/CFS V2 consensus is slightly warmer than the 10-year normal while all AI models are considerably colder. The ECM/CFS V2 most closely matches the Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast which favors cold North-central and warmth to the south.

Northern hemisphere snow cover as of November 10, 2025, has expanded across all of Russia (except southwest) and most of Canada. Snow cover is ahead of schedule Interior Northeast U.S., along the Northern China border, and West China. Snow cover will bias the local climate cold. Below normal snow cover is vividly present across Northeast Europe and Northwest Russia biasing the climate pattern warm although snow and cold is ahead for this zone.

Temperatures challenge century-old previous records in the Midwest to Gulf States. The coldest anomaly maps are forecast for tomorrow morning (Mid-south U.S., Monday afternoon (Tennessee Valley), and Tuesday morning (Southeast).

The latest 6-week U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast maintains the warm spike for Nov. 14-20 followed by a colder trend (by operational model consensus) for the week ending Nov. 27th. The new week 4-6 forecast indicates December turns cold especially across the Northern States including the high energy demand Northeast U.S. The latest ECMWF week 4-6 upper air forecast supports the cold HDD projections as a chilly (snow producing) upper trough originates in the Northeast and elongates westward along the U.S./Canada Border.