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10/21/2025, 4:38 pm EDT
A map of a hurricane AI-generated content may be incorrect.
10/21/2025, 4:38 pm EDT

Will Melissa Be an RI Candidate?

Upper shear is inhibiting development. However, once an organized inner core has formed, given the 86F/30C SST which is 1-2C warmer than normal and 3rd warmest upper ocean heat on record for the Caribbean Sea, there is potential for rapid intensification (RI) as early as Thursday (HWRF) or later this week (HMON) to a strong category-2 hurricane or category-3 major hurricane.
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10/21/2025, 5:30 am EDT
A map of the south america with hot weather AI-generated content may be incorrect.
10/21/2025, 5:30 am EDT

Cool Air Masses South America; Brazil Rains 1st Week of November

One cold front has plowed into Northeast Brazil this week and another stronger front shifts across Argentina late week/early weekend. The second front delivers a widespread cool air mass for next week across Argentina. The supporting upper trough cuts off over central South America in early November to deliver wet weather to the Brazil drought zone.
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10/20/2025, 7:30 pm EDT
A map of the united states AI-generated content may be incorrect.
10/20/2025, 7:30 pm EDT

Week-4 Upper Air Forecasts for North America

The upper air forecast for week-4 is highly variable ranging from an amplified (warm) Central U.S. high pressure ridge according to CFS V2 to a deep cool upper trough centered on New York based on the 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS, or somewhat of a compromise by ECMWF. MJO projections for mid-November are in phase_6 (near the Dateline) which favors a warm solution for the U.S. ECM is the chosen model with CFS V2 the caveat forecast while leaning away from the cooler East AI scenarios.
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10/20/2025, 7:28 pm EDT
A graph with a line and a line AI-generated content may be incorrect.
10/20/2025, 7:28 pm EDT

Can I Use Southern Oscillation Index to Approximate Multivariate ENSO Index?

NOAA’s multivariate ENSO index (MEI) changed its data input from the Japanese Meteorological Agency’s JRA-55 reanalysis dataset to JRA-3Q as of January 2024. However, the data has not been attainable since May although NOAA claims the data is available (although hard to decipher with the government shutdown). MEI is a handy climate diagnostic identifying the atmospheric reaction to the SSTA/SLPA pattern across the Pacific tropics/subtropics.
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