News
07/31/2025, 8:43 am EDT
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Wind Speed AI Forecasts for North Atlantic Tropics in August

A sophisticated analog system, the machine learning AI 4Cast Net V2 GFS ENS, projects above normal wind speed risk (at 100 meters) in the Gulf of Mexico to the Bahamas for middle August and across the Caribbean Sea for late August. Implications for potential tropical cyclones are suggested by these forecasts.
07/31/2025, 6:36 am EDT
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Dangerous Flood Risk for Mid-Atlantic States Today!

In the Mid-Atlantic region, a Flood Watch is issued for excessive rainfall and severe storm threat for today. In high population centers of Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia dangerous flash flooding is possible late today/tonight!
07/30/2025, 1:28 pm EDT
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12Z GFS Explodes Hotter Days 11-15 In Northeast U.S.

The 12Z GFS is hot in the Southwest during the 6-10-day period and trending warmer from the eastern Canadian Prairies to Quebec. In the 11-15-day period, the 12Z GFS explodes hotter into the Northeast U.S. causing 106 CDD for Aug. 8-14 which would easily exceed the current week.
07/29/2025, 9:09 am EDT
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North Atlantic ITCZ Gaining Significant Strength!

The ITCZ in the outer tropical North Atlantic is becoming very impressive. The beginning of real tropical cyclone season (August 1st) is vividly approaching! Forecast models indicate potential for 2 tropical waves to emerge in the east-central tropics midweek and track west or west to northwest but, due to dry air, unlikely to develop into a tropical system.