April 2024 - Page 5 of 8 - Climate Impact Company

News

04/11/2024, 9:56 am EDT

Recent Precipitation Forecast Verification days 11-15 U.S. AG Belt and Europe

During the past 14 days, the 11-15-day rainfall forecasts across the U.S. AG Belt and Europe/Western Russia have shown moderate to dramatic wet/dry bias. In the U.S., forecasts have been too wet across much of the Great Plains and Tennessee Valley (and vicinity) and too dry in the Midwest States.

04/11/2024, 9:16 am EDT

Will Evolution of +IOD Interrupt La Nina 2024 Expectations?

The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (ABOM) announced that the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is forecast to return to the positive phase in May lasting several months into early Q4/2024. ABOM identifies +IOD years (since 1950) as 1961, 1963, 1967, 1972, 1994, 1997, 2006, 2015, 2019, and 2023. In each of these analog years (except for 1961 and 1967) El Nino was present. Of the 10 analog years, 5 featured strong El Nino.

04/09/2024, 2:39 pm EDT

Surprisingly, April ACE Forecasts are not that Accurate

Surprisingly, early April accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) forecasts for the following tropical cyclone season issued by Colorado State University have limited skill. The average error during the 2007-2023 period is 45. Of the 17 years since seasonal ACE forecasts were generated, 6 years were (well) under-forecast, 5 years were (well) over-forecast, and 6 were reasonable (within 30).

04/09/2024, 6:00 am EDT

Major U.S. Storm With Peak Severe Weather/Excessive Rainfall Tomorrow in Northern Gulf States

On Wednesday, the peak intensity of this storm is realized. A large mass of severe thunderstorms is projected across much of the Northern Gulf States with tornado risk from Louisiana to Alabama. Excessive rain and attendant flooding strike the entire Southeast U.S. centered on Alabama.