NOAA/SPC has raised the probability of damaging wind gusts in the Washington to Philadelphia stretch possibly reaching the NYC area for an incoming squall line forecast over this region by late this afternoon.
Large regions of deep-layer soil moisture deficits are caused by long-term (usually 9 months or more) precipitation shortages. In the U.S. and generally east of the Continental Divide, presence of large areas of deep-layer soil moisture deficits can foreshadow flash drought risk areas.
The June 2022 national temperature ranking was 15th warmest (of 128 years). The southern tier of the U.S. ranked in the MUCH ABOVE normal category with Texas close to an all-time record. The June 2022 national precipitation pattern was 12th driest on record and featured a wet pattern in the West (wettest June on record for Oregon) while the Central and East U.S. were very dry including the 2nd driest June on record in North Carolina.
Gathering storm clouds in the northwest Gulf of Mexico leads to a week of heavy rain featuring risk of >10 in. on the southeast Louisiana coast. Low-pressure is offshore and over the warm Gulf of Mexico therefore monitoring for a possible tropical system later this week is required.