The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is alive shifting eastward across the East Pacific tropics to tropical Africa and eventually western tropical Indian Ocean during the next 2 weeks. Intensity is marginal although ECM indicates weak-to-moderate intensity. Usually, an MJO shift through phase_1/phase_2 increases risk of hot and dry weather in Australia and a wetter regime for South America.

The ECM/ECM ENS continue a wet forecast bias across northwest South America, much of Brazil, and Uruguay during the past 30 days for all 15-day forecasts. This wet bias increases during the medium (6-10-day) and extended (11-15-day) range. The GFS/GFS ENS has a dry bias for West Brazil and Paraguay/Southeast Brazil.