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08/10/2025, 12:04 pm EDT
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August 2025 Global Soil Moisture: Canadian Prairies wetter, monitoring short-term heat Central/East-central U.S. but drought development unlikely, West Europe drought.

Striking is the amount of WET soil moisture regions across the globe just after mid-year. The central and eastern U.S. are much wetter and any important drought conditions have disappeared except for Southern Florida. In the U.S., the western states are encountering a severe drought which is worsening. The Canadian Prairies have unexpectedly shifted wetter while Southwest Canada is drier.
08/08/2025, 8:20 am EDT
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Comparing “Weeklies” Temperature Forecast Bias

The temperature forecast bias among two leading “weeklies” forecast models is clearly too hot in the 16-30-day period across the West and Central U.S. The explanation for the warm (ECM) bias is presence of an unusually strong summertime polar vortex over Greenland with a southward extending upper trough occasionally visiting the West U.S.
08/07/2025, 1:42 pm EDT
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12Z GFS: Simultaneous U.S./Europe Heatwaves Next Week

Simultaneous heatwaves affecting high population regions of the U.S. and Europe are indicated by the 12Z GFS for the 6-10-day period. The heatwave continues in the 11-15-day period anchored over the Central/Midwest U.S. and Western Europe (Fig. 3-4).
08/07/2025, 9:08 am EDT
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Evaporative Drought Demand Index Identifies U.S. Fire Risk Areas

The 12-week Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) reveals U.S. areas most susceptible to fire risk for late meteorological summer/early autumn. The highest alert, ED3/ED4 is spread across central and southern California, much of the Great Basin, and Arizona.