News
07/24/2025, 5:23 am EDT
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July 2025 ENSO Outlook: Making the case for weak La Nina in quarter 4/2025.

Some forecast models have insisted that weak La Nina redevelops by quarter 4/2025. Diagnostics confirm the La Nina potential. During recent weeks a traditional cool phase Pacific decadal oscillation has formed, and the attendant atmospheric wind is driving cool waters off the U.S. West Coast toward the tropics south and southwest of Hawaii. Upper ocean heat has suddenly cooled. If the current trend persists, weak La Nina could emerge by northern hemisphere mid-autumn.
07/23/2025, 12:38 pm EDT
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Marine Heatwave Inspires China to Japan Extreme Heat

Reported early today is a record number of high temperature days since March in China (Al Jazeera). Most recently, excessive heat has been observed across East-central China where temperature anomalies of +2C to +6C were observed July 16-22, 2025.
07/22/2025, 4:49 am EDT
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Eastern Europe to The Black Sea Region Shifts Wetter/Cooler

AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS is used operationally due to the much higher skill score compared to traditional operational models during the past 30 days. The outlook is considerably cooler across Eastern Europe where a wet pattern resides. Wet and cool weather extends to the Black Sea region.
07/21/2025, 1:36 pm EDT
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Subsurface Equatorial East Pacific Showing Signs of Cooling

The upper ocean temperature anomaly structure in the eastern equatorial Pacific indicates a new moderately deep cool layer. The warm layer just beneath the surface is beginning to weaken. The long-term ENSO outlook for later in 2025 remains in the neutral phase. However, as observed all of 2025, some models are indicating La Nina development, and a slight cooler trend has developed supportive of the La Nina outlier forecasts.