The 2024 North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season is forecast to potentially be the most active on record given the unusually warm North Atlantic Ocean surface and anticipated evolving La Nina climate. Given this scenario, concern is increasing regarding a wet climate (due to tropical activity) in the Gulf of Mexico and the latent heat release of that convective rain northward to cause the atmosphere to warm and high pressure to form in the Ohio Valley where EDDI shows drought potential.

Entering June 2024, ENSO is in neutral phase. The trend toward (expected) La Nina is apparent, but barely. Needed are stronger trade winds to up-well anomalous cool waters east of 140W longitude in teh equatorial Pacific to cool surface temperatures and cause them to extend westward to initial La Nina. We have a way to go before that happens.