So far in 2024, the U.S. is 5th warmest on record. Of the 48 contiguous states, 34 ranked MUCH ABOVE normal for the first 4 months of 2024. Northern New England and New York have encountered their 2nd warmest first 1/3 of the year on record. Michigan and Wisconsin are also the 2nd warmest on record for the 4-month period.

Issued on the 5th of each month is the ECMWF “monthlies” extending to 6 months. The projected upper air forecasts for June through September are indicated (Fig. 1-4). What we’re looking for are areas of semi-permanent high pressure which best identify areas where anomalous heat and dry climate persist leading to a potential drought. The obvious region exposed to this risk according to ECMWF is Central and Southwest Europe during August and September.