Most instructive regarding ENSO is the current upper ocean heat analysis and comparison with one month ago. Note that the most recent analysis yields a sharp cool (blue) anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific off the northwest coast of South America. Westward toward the Dateline, an area of shallow anomalous warmth lingers able to sustain El Nino. Note the one-month trend is steadily cooler favoring weakening of El Nino and increasing risk of following La Nina.

The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is update. The forecast is based primarily on an expected phase change of both the ENSO and IOD regimes plus the influence of marine heat waves on climate. The overall theme of the outlook is wetter as the 2020-22 wet climate across much of Australia returns for 2024.