November 2023 - Page 2 of 9 - Climate Impact Company

News

11/28/2023, 3:59 pm EST

The U.S. Winter 2023-24 HDD Scorecard

The outlook provided by Climate Impact Company indicates above normal risk of cold weather for JAN/FEB. Cited is increased risk of negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) which could cause moderately strong (and brief) polar vortex events that generate cold weather in the U.S. with the greatest risk in February. Note that if these events fail to form, the forecast is likely much warmer.

11/28/2023, 3:57 pm EST

Bitter Cold Northwest Eurasia and Into Europe; Doubting Major Warm-up to Follow

In 15 days, the mega-cluster ensemble “most likely” upper air forecast indicates a cold trough lingering over Europe. ECM, GFS, and CFS V2 each indicate a robust warm pattern change. However, extensive snow cover advises caution, and the CMC projection of lingering cold is indicated.

11/27/2023, 2:46 pm EST

Potential Complete Reversal in ENSO Phase by July/August 2024

The latest NCEP CFS V2 Nino34 SSTA forecast continues to indicate an El Nino 2023-24 peak over the next 1-2 months followed by a steady weakening signature for the first half of 2024 to neutral ENSO mid-year. The latest 8 ensemble members of the Nino34 SSTA forecast indicate a vigorous ENSO phase change to La Nina for JUL/AUG of 2024!

11/27/2023, 2:43 pm EST

Non-El Nino-like Climate Zones

Oceanic El Nino is approaching peak. However, atmospheric El Nino is considerably weaker. Consequently, non-El Nino-like weather regimes are occurring. Examples are incoming heavy rains for India and Southeast Asia, unexpected heavy rains for Eastern Australia, and evolving bitter cold across Europe and Northwest Russia.