01/23/2023, 3:09 pm EST
A colder pattern change is ahead for the U.S. Details remain uncertain as to the depth and expanse of the cold weather. ECM ENS has the best opinion of all models and by days 11-15 indicates sprawling cold across the U.S.
News
01/22/2023, 2:45 pm EST
The consensus of all forecast models U.S. gas population weight HDD projections through Feb. 9 yield a colder pattern ahead. National heating demand is certainly higher than normal for next week. However, note the discrepancy for next week as GFS forecasts near normal demand and GFS ENS/CMC ENS project significant heating demand. The national heating demand trend has increased since Friday for the Feb. 3-9 forecast.
01/21/2023, 9:17 am EST
Over the next 2-3 weeks a gradual expansion of snow cover for much of the northern half of the U.S. is expected. Meanwhile, stratospheric warming may shift from the Eurasian side of the North Pole to North America spawning arctic air. Forecast confidence is LOW for that part of the forecast. However, expanding snow cover will invite a cold February ahead.
01/17/2023, 5:42 pm EST
The 12Z ECM indicates a large area of stratospheric warming shifts from Eurasia/Siberia across Alaska and into the U.S. late in the 10-day forecast. ECM is the first model to identify and deliver an arctic air mass to the North-central U.S. on day-10.