Typhoon Noru will continue to strengthen over the South China Sea today and move into Central Vietnam in about 36 hours bringing 1-2 feet of rain. Another tropical cyclone may follow this weekend for North Vietnam.
ECM "weeklies" have been helpful identifying periods of anomalous rainfall in the deep tropics/subtropics implying presence of tropical cyclone activity. The model is persistent at producing that risk for the west-central/central North Atlantic tropics/subtropics through October.
The Climate Impact Company concern regarding the forecast track of Tropical Depression 9, which is certain to become a Gulf hurricane by early next week, is the more prominent hurricane forecast model HMNI and HWFI forecast track and intensities in the latest 5-day outlook.
A review of Tropical Disturbance 98L and expectations that this system will intensify and drift into the Gulf of Mexico next week while possibly reaching major hurricane intensity.