Arctic cold is established over Western Canada into the Northern U.S. and snow cover is expanding. Recent model runs have removed this arctic air by the middle third of January. But arctic air is very difficult to dissipate. Warm SSTA off the U.S. East Coast leads to sea level rise which causes any onshore flow to quickly push a flooding risk.

A conservative U.S. drought forecast is most-focused on West-central to Mid-south U.S. drought expansion/strengthening while also strengthening drought from the Carolinas to Florida. The “caveat” (and more extreme scenario) forecast projects a wider drought stretching across the southern half of the U.S. and possibly into the Western U.S. Corn Belt.