August 2025 - Climate Impact Company

News

08/29/2025, 4:57 am EDT

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08/29/2025, 4:57 am EDT

Strong Negative Indian Ocean Dipole Arrives; La Nina Approaching!

During the past week, the Nino SSTA regions have cooled dramatically. The Nino34 SSTA is -0.49C today, very close to the -0.50C La Nina threshold. Off the northwest coast of South America, the Nino12C chilled rapidly to -0.80C. In the tropical Indian Ocean, the western areas have cooled while the southeast tropics have warmed dramatically signaling a moderate-to-strong negative Indian Ocean dipole (-IOD).

08/28/2025, 9:48 am EDT

The Northern Hemisphere Upper Air Pattern Changes in September

The strongest marine heat waves (MHW) on record in the West Pacific and in-between Japan and the Asia Coast extending to MHW’s NEP25A and NEP25B in the Northeast Pacific are well-correlated to the summer 2025 upper air pattern featuring a strong upper-level high-pressure ridge. Similarly, the MHW’s in the east/northeast portion of the North Atlantic are well-correlated to a semi-permanent upper-level high-pressure ridge dominating the west/south portion of Europe during summer 2025.

08/27/2025, 5:33 am EDT

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08/27/2025, 5:33 am EDT

Heavy Rains Shift Across Southern U.S.

Significant wet weather shifts across the southern U.S. over the next 5 days. Excessive rain causing a flood risk emerges in Kansas today and Arkansas tomorrow (where severe storms are likely). Excessive rain causes flooding across Western Texas late week. The 5-day rainfall totals through the weekend are in the 3-5-inch range centered on Arkansas/Louisiana, the Southeast Coast including Florida, and the New Mexico/Texas state line.

08/27/2025, 5:29 am EDT

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08/27/2025, 5:29 am EDT

Why Is Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea Lacking TC’s So Far?

The Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea have been exceptionally quiet regarding tropical cyclone activity through late August despite moderately warmer than normal ocean surface temperatures. The primary reason for the lack of tropical cyclone activity is the dry mid-troposphere. The dryness in this region is compensation for a wet mid-troposphere across the eastern tropical Pacific and eastern half of the North Atlantic tropics.