The 2-meter medium range temperature anomaly forecast skill across North America during the past 30 days reveals ECM ENS as the top model for both periods. The AI Graph Cast finished number 2 for the 6-10-day period while the improving CMC ENS reached number 2 in the 11-15-day period. Once again, GFS produced the lowest skill.

Climate Impact Company monitors marine heatwaves (MHW) due to their recent (past 10 years) increased presence and intensity and influence on climate patterns. Generally, anomalous high pressure extends across and downwind MHW regions, promoting drought risk while also adding low-level moisture to the atmosphere to cause over-achieving precipitation events and intensifying tropical cyclones.

The cool cycle of the Pacific decadal oscillation has strengthened during recent years and will reach 30 years in duration if continued through 2026 as forecast by the Climate Impact Company constructed analog prediction. The 30-year duration matches the previous longest cool cycle observed during the middle 1940’s to middle 1970’s. Are we due for a long-term cycle change of the PDO?

While the potential for El Nino development seems to be developing, the statistical and dynamic forecast models are only partially indicating weak El Nino potential and include a slight risk of weak La Nina returning later in 2025 while the consensus forecast is neutral ENSO through 2025. However, evidence to support El Nino return in 2026 is increasing.