News
10/21/2024, 8:28 am EDT

New TC Alert Posted for Central/East Caribbean Sea for Late October

An ALERT is posted for tropical cyclone development late in October for the central/east Caribbean Sea. A Halloween tropical cyclone is likely in this region. The next storm name is Patty. Early projections indicate a significant storm drifting north or northeast possibly affecting Hispaniola and/or Puerto Rico.
10/21/2024, 6:11 am EDT

Negative Pacific North America Index COULD Bring Great Plains Rain

On and off Great Plains wet weather for late October/early November is reliant on evolution of a negative phase Pacific North America (-PNA) index pattern. If -PNA develops, an upper trough cools the West and forces southerly flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico to interact with cold fronts in the Great Plains and cause rainfall.
10/16/2024, 2:31 pm EDT

Marine Heat Waves Remain Dominant and Continue Climate Influence

Marine heat waves continue to produce significant influence on where semi-permanent high-pressure areas form alongside their compensating low-pressure areas. Many MHW’s are ongoing in the northern hemisphere, the strongest east of Japan. Regenerating MHW’s are likely during the southern hemisphere summer in the subtropical/middle latitude oceans. The extensive warming of the ocean caused by MHW’s is likely suppressing La Nina onset.
10/16/2024, 9:40 am EDT

Heavy Rains Southern Brazil While Northern Brazil Becomes Hot/Dry

Weak upper trough cuts off over Southwest Brazil propelling a heavy rainfall episode this week through next week. Significant relief to the long-term drought is certainly implied. ECM "weeklies" ease but do not end the Southern Brazil into early November. Northern Brazil becomes the focus of hot and dry weather.