The NOAA/NHC 5-day forecast remains consistent, turning Milton northeastward tonight, and then into the Tampa Area as a strong category-3 major hurricane around 1AM Thursday. The forecast track is a little slower than yesterday’s forecast.

Upper ridge patterns are well-amplified and centered on Northern Italy and West-central Russia. In-between is an upper trough brining wet weather to the drought region across Southwest Russia and much of the Black Sea region. The upper trough lingers into early November. Also, a look at optimum climate normal for Europe winter.

At 11AM EDT, Category-4 Major Hurricane Milton is located at 21.7N/91.7W or about 720 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Top wind is 155 mph. The threshold of a category-5 major hurricane is 156 mph. Milton is moving east-southeast at 9 mph. Surface pressure has plummeted to 933 MB. NOAA/NHC states that the 85 knot increase in wind speed during the past 24 hours is 3rd fastest behind Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007). Shortly after this (NOAA) message, the storm was upgraded to a category-5 major hurricane.

The NOAA/NHC 5-day outlook strengthens Milton to a hurricane tonight with due east movement continuing to early Tuesday followed by intensification to a category-3 major hurricane while turning east-northeast Tuesday afternoon. Milton maintains that track and makes landfall as a category-3 major hurricane in the Tampa, FL area late Wednesday afternoon.

Expansive drought is observed across the U.S. entering October. In early October, 42% of the U.S. is in a drought condition. The aerial coverage has increased significantly in one month (30% in early September). Since early July, U.S. drought has more than doubled aerial coverage.

The upper ridge over Brazil breaks down during the medium range. An energetic mid-latitude flow enables cold fronts to push farther north. Frontal systems deliver much needed rain to key crop areas in Brazil most notably in the medium range. Meanwhile, a marine heatwave is forming off the Brazil Coast.

The U.S. Weekly Crop Moisture Index analysis for late September reveals widespread regions of significant soil moisture deficit particularly in the Great Plains to Texas while Helene eased the previous dryness in the eastern and southern Ohio Valley. Outside of tropical cyclone risk, apparently focused on Florida in the AIFS 15-day outlook, the entire U.S. AG Belt is very dry featuring no rain throughout the Great Plains.