October 2024 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

10/21/2024, 8:28 am EDT

New TC Alert Posted for Central/East Caribbean Sea for Late October

An ALERT is posted for tropical cyclone development late in October for the central/east Caribbean Sea. A Halloween tropical cyclone is likely in this region. The next storm name is Patty. Early projections indicate a significant storm drifting north or northeast possibly affecting Hispaniola and/or Puerto Rico.

10/21/2024, 6:11 am EDT

Negative Pacific North America Index COULD Bring Great Plains Rain

On and off Great Plains wet weather for late October/early November is reliant on evolution of a negative phase Pacific North America (-PNA) index pattern. If -PNA develops, an upper trough cools the West and forces southerly flow out of the western Gulf of Mexico to interact with cold fronts in the Great Plains and cause rainfall.

10/16/2024, 2:31 pm EDT

Marine Heat Waves Remain Dominant and Continue Climate Influence

Marine heat waves continue to produce significant influence on where semi-permanent high-pressure areas form alongside their compensating low-pressure areas. Many MHW’s are ongoing in the northern hemisphere, the strongest east of Japan. Regenerating MHW’s are likely during the southern hemisphere summer in the subtropical/middle latitude oceans. The extensive warming of the ocean caused by MHW’s is likely suppressing La Nina onset.

10/16/2024, 9:40 am EDT

Heavy Rains Southern Brazil While Northern Brazil Becomes Hot/Dry

Weak upper trough cuts off over Southwest Brazil propelling a heavy rainfall episode this week through next week. Significant relief to the long-term drought is certainly implied. ECM "weeklies" ease but do not end the Southern Brazil into early November. Northern Brazil becomes the focus of hot and dry weather.

10/15/2024, 7:52 pm EDT

Summer 2024-25 Focus on Evolving Drought Interior East Australia.

Meteorological summer brings suppressed heat risk across the western third of the continent while central and eastern Australia are hotter than normal. The precipitation regime is quite wet in the Northwest, near normal on the South Coast, and drier than normal from central New South Wales across much of Queensland. Summer drought risk during summer 2024-25 increases in Queensland to Northern New South Wales.

10/15/2024, 11:44 am EDT

Transient MJO and Snow Cover Affecting Climate

Transient Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) alters the prevailing jet stream pattern in the mid-latitudes that cause our sensible weather. The MJO is active heading toward November. Snow cover is ahead of schedule in Asia, typical of the past decade caused by cold wind across the open water north of the continent.

10/14/2024, 5:37 am EDT

Much Needed Rainfall Appears in Great Plains Forecast

Wetter forecasts appeared over the weekend for the Great Plains and East-central U.S although models were inconsistent. The GFS is increasingly confident that wet weather appears across the western and northern Great Plains in the 6-10-day period shifting eastward and boldly across the Midwest States in the 11-15-day forecast.

10/14/2024, 4:33 am EDT

Weak La Nina Ahead Won’t Last Long

Climate diagnostics reveal marginal support for weak La Nina ahead. Dynamic and analog forecasts maintain weak La Nina for late 2024 likely not lasting long ending as meteorological winter 2024-25 in the northern hemisphere closes. The low confidence ENSO phase forecast for the remainder of 2025 is steady neutral ENSO phase. Strong ENSO events are not likely into 2026.

10/11/2024, 8:26 am EDT

ECM and AIFS Indicate Heavy Rain Ahead Southeast Australia

Both ECM and AIFS agree that heavy rain evolves across Southeast Australia in the 10-day rainfall forecast. The bulk of the rain is in the 6-10-day period. During that time, a low-pressure area moves southwest to northeast across New South Wales focusing heavy rain along and south of the track.

10/10/2024, 4:45 am EDT

Great Plains Dry Pattern Continues as Drought Worsens

The U.S. AG Belt remains arid most vividly displayed by the 14-day percent of normal rainfall analysis. The daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals the strengthening Great Plains drought. All models remain very dry in the 15-day outlooks with the exception of the GFS offering patchy wet weather in the medium range.

10/10/2024, 4:33 am EDT

Southwest Europe and Black Sea Heavy Rains

In the latest (GFS) 15-day outlook, wet weather consolidates in Southwest Europe with a new wet zone emerging across the Black Sea region. The GFS indicates potential for excessive rainfall along the coastal portions of the Black Sea. However, limited rainfall reaches parched Southwest Russia. The GFS is the wettest of the operational models for both regions.

10/09/2024, 5:51 am EDT

Catastrophic Category-5 Major Hurricane Milton Heading for Tampa Area Making Landfall Tonight

At 5AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Milton was located at 24.5N/85.4W or about 300 miles southwest of Tampa, FL. Milton is moving northeast at 14 mph with top wind near 160 mph. Central pressure is 907 MB. Milton has maintained category-5 intensity longer than expected. The southwest flow aloft is moving Milton northeastward. However, the hurricane is concentric so weakening effects of shear on the hurricane have not started.