As meteorological summer unfolds, concern regarding Brazilian drought is ongoing. One steady development in recent weeks is the tendency for forecast models to over-forecast rainfall in the medium-range particularly in the 11-15-day period. During the past 7 days, the wet bias has increased.

The rainfall pattern during the past 30 days is very wet in Southeast Brail/Northeast Argentina and Western Brazil while most of the remaining sections of Brazil are dry. The influence of this regime plus the longer-term climate is to produce deep (10-200 CM) soil moisture anomaly deficits across Northern Brazil, Southwest Brazil, and Interior East Brazil.