Last week, the Nino SSTA regions were warmer. Three of the four Nino SSTA regions remain within the La Nina threshold. The Nino34 SSTA is -0.9C which is moderate strength La Nina but slightly warmer than the previous week.
Anomalous heat builds across the Argentina Drought in the 6-10-day period. The next 10 days are dry in this critical crop area. Thunderstorms appear over Western Argentina in the 6-10-day period and there's a chance for a few thundershowers in the 11-15-day period.
Forecast confidence is increasing for a significant snowstorm in the East later next week. ECM has an incredible amount of snow across the entire northeast quadrant of the U.S. while GFS focuses heavy snow on Virginia. With snow on the ground and following arctic air, the East will be super cold for Christmas Day and for a few days that follow.
Argentina drought continues but a super drought or flash drought is less likely given the current upper air pattern forecast. Later this summer, the upper trough is forecast to shift east and northeast allowing some drying into Southeast Brazil.