News
03/14/2022, 8:07 am EDT

Important 30-Day SSTA Changes

Seasonal tropical cyclone outlooks are issued by early April. A contribution to the forecast process is the tropical North Atlantic index which represents the SSTA pattern between the Caribbean Sea and Northwest Africa Coast and has observed significant cooling during the past 30 days.
03/11/2022, 9:55 am EST

Sharp Oceanic Warming Off the Northwest Coast of South America

An east-shifting subsurface Kelvin Wave reached the northwest coast of South America during late FEB/early MAR leading to a rapid warming of the ocean surface in the Nino12 SSTA region. The core of the ongoing La Nina regime shifts westward. However, the warming in the east, may be a sign of La Nina's demise ahead.
03/10/2022, 3:50 pm EST

Areas Susceptible To Flash Drought During 2022 Warm Season

One way to generate a flash drought is presence of an amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge during summertime across a region hampered by deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficit. Precipitation deficits over a 9-month (or more) period leads to deep layer soil moisture shortages.