07/13/2021, 10:34 am EDT

Regions Of Drought AND Wet Soil Moisture Across the U.S.

Profound drought continues across the western and north-central portion of the U.S. Rainfall deficits are routinely 9-12 inches and sometimes >15 inches sprawled across the western states to the Dakotas and Minnesota. The 2-week trend indicates the rainfall shortages are steady except increasing in the Columbia Basin and the Upper Midwest particularly Minnesota into northern Iowa.
07/13/2021, 10:29 am EDT

Concern Regarding Stronger Hurricane(s) Generation In 2021

The deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin are becoming somewhat warmer than normal. SSTA of >1C is considered a moderate warm anomaly and much of the deep tropics have recently reached that threshold. Robust warm anomalies of >2C rest on the equator. Anomalous warm SSTA in this region are generally well-correlated with increased convection (and tropical cyclone/hurricane risk) especially if the proper atmospheric conditions are present.
07/11/2021, 8:09 pm EDT

La Nina Modoki Risk Later This Year

More confident is a return of La Nina by quarter 4 of 2021 by most forecast models. Interestingly, several models are indicating potential for the coolest SSTA associated with the returning La Nina near or just east of the Dateline while waters are near normal off the northwest coast of South America. This condition is representative of a La Nina Modoki and most prominently forecast by NCEP CFS V2 by October.
07/11/2021, 7:35 pm EDT

June 2021 Is Record Hot!

Given the historic western U.S. drought there is no surprise on the record heat observed in the West (and nationally) during June 2021.