07/14/2021, 8:05 am EDT
Dryness propels intensifying drought and historic heat across the Canadian Prairies and North-central U.S. in the medium-range forecast. The dryness and anomalous heat expands into the west and northwest U.S. Corn Belt.
07/13/2021, 12:38 pm EDT
NOAA/CPC identifies many June historic weather and climate events occurring during June 2021. The June 2021 upper air pattern provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society helps to explain the super warmth.
07/13/2021, 10:34 am EDT
Profound drought continues across the western and north-central portion of the U.S. Rainfall deficits are routinely 9-12 inches and sometimes >15 inches sprawled across the western states to the Dakotas and Minnesota. The 2-week trend indicates the rainfall shortages are steady except increasing in the Columbia Basin and the Upper Midwest particularly Minnesota into northern Iowa.
07/13/2021, 10:29 am EDT
The deep tropics of the North Atlantic basin are becoming somewhat warmer than normal. SSTA of >1C is considered a moderate warm anomaly and much of the deep tropics have recently reached that threshold. Robust warm anomalies of >2C rest on the equator. Anomalous warm SSTA in this region are generally well-correlated with increased convection (and tropical cyclone/hurricane risk) especially if the proper atmospheric conditions are present.
07/11/2021, 8:09 pm EDT
More confident is a return of La Nina by quarter 4 of 2021 by most forecast models. Interestingly, several models are indicating potential for the coolest SSTA associated with the returning La Nina near or just east of the Dateline while waters are near normal off the northwest coast of South America. This condition is representative of a La Nina Modoki and most prominently forecast by NCEP CFS V2 by October.
07/11/2021, 7:35 pm EDT
Given the historic western U.S. drought there is no surprise on the record heat observed in the West (and nationally) during June 2021.
07/09/2021, 3:32 pm EDT
Colorado State University has raised the 2021 seasonal activity forecast for North Atlantic tropical cyclones to 20 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. The ACE index is now 160. The Climate Impact Company concern is amounts could be higher due to the lingering La Nina climate as defined by multi-variate ENSO index.
07/09/2021, 3:28 pm EDT
The Climate Impact Company July 2021 ENSO forecast reveals potential for a moderate-to-strong La Nina event returning later in 2021. The moderate La Nina strength atmosphere has lingered despite oceanic ending of La Nina in April. For this reason, the atmosphere is likely to regenerate conditions to propel the return of La Nina for quarter 4 of 2021.