07/26/2021, 11:44 am EDT

La Nina Appears To Be Developing Rapidly!

La Nina development appears to be developing rapidly! The Nino34 SSTA region is already at the La Nina threshold. Last week, the subsurface equatorial East Pacific cooled rapidly and if that trend continues a La Nina onset will be here quickly, possibly by September
07/26/2021, 8:19 am EDT

Low Mid-level Relative Humidity Limits Atlantic TC Activity

A stronger-than-normal Bermuda high-pressure system is contributing to the lack of relative humidity in the middle atmosphere across the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic basin. The lack of RH in the mid-level atmosphere is well-correlated to lack of tropical cyclone activity since Elsa earlier this month.
07/19/2021, 9:37 am EDT

Tropics/Subtropics Not Warming in the North Atlantic

Dramatic warming in the Atlantic Ocean in the eastern equatorial region has been dramatic. The warming is not expanding west and northwest as forecast models have forecast, at least not yet.
07/16/2021, 7:58 am EDT

The North Atlantic Warm Hole and The Western Europe Floods

The North Atlantic Warm Hole (NAWH) is an area of persistent cooler-than-normal sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) becoming more prominent in 2013 related to increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and persistent each warm season since that time including 2021. The NAWH has been displaced eastward to just-off Western Europe (Fig. 1). Aloft, the air cools over the NAWH and becomes a home for a persistent upper trough. During July, the upper trough has shifted slightly east from the 2021 source region causing excessive rain storms extending from France to Germany to Poland (Fig. 2). Most recently, the rains have caused devastating widespread flooding in Germany.