News
05/19/2025, 4:26 am EDT
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Cool Ending to May East U.S.; Warm-up in June

Unusually cool weather across the East U.S. the last third of May but warmer changes in June are forecast by ECMWF including robust anomalous warmth for most of the U.S. by week-4 (June 8-14). A tendency for wet weather in the northwest Gulf region is likely to continue in June.
05/18/2025, 7:29 pm EDT
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Brief Review of the May 15-16 U.S. Severe Weather Event

As a review, an exceptionally intense severe weather episode was observed late last week across the Upper Midwest, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic States. On May 15 (Thursday), NOAA/SPC’s final count of severe weather reports is 657 including an unusually high amount of hail (274) plus 32 tornado reports. On May 16 (Friday), NOAA/SPC counted 1, 216 damage reports including a whopping 371 hail damage events and 815 wind damage reports.
05/14/2025, 8:14 am EDT
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Checking U.S. and Europe/Western Russia Soil Moisture and Rainfall Pattern

Large differences are regions of wet vs. dry soil across the Central and East U.S. are evident in the daily soil moisture anomaly analysis. The rainfall pattern is changeable and features significant events as organized drought risk heading toward meteorological summer is not weel-organized (except in the Southwest). The Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia drought receives relief from a showery pattern the next 2 weeks.
05/12/2025, 9:21 am EDT

Latest North Atlantic Basin SSTA Analysis

The official start of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclone season is June 1st. During the active tropical cyclone season period of 2016-2024 when an average of 18-19 named storms have generated each year, the North Atlantic has averaged much warmer than normal and a likely catalyst to the active period. As mid-May approaches, the North Atlantic basin is marginally warm (+0.37C) and 0.23C cooler than 1 year ago.