Utilizing CFS V2 extended range forecasts of the stratosphere there is not an obvious sign of an emerging sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event during late FEB/early MAR. The ECM forecast is not available. HOWEVER, a major slowdown of the global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) is in the forecast through mid-March. When -GLAAM occurs, the mid-latitude upper-level pattern has the tendency to produce amplified low-pressure troughs.

A large area of snow is forecast to the north of a slowly developing low pressure system, most intense off the Northeast Coast, this weekend. The NBM model forecasts 4-8 in. of snow in the Midwest which looks a bit high, and a more aggressive snowfall forecast, for New England, especially near the coast as the storm strengthens offshore early Sunday. There is a freezing rain/ice accretion risk across a large area most likely causing impacts over west-central Pennsylvania.