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02/10/2025, 7:21 pm EST
02/10/2025, 7:21 pm EST

February 2025 ENSO, PDO, AMO, and IOD Outlook

The Climate Impact Company ENSO, PDO, AMO, and IOD constructed analog forecasts are updated. The ENSO outlook increasingly favors 2025 as a La Nina year while cool phase PDO continues until a possible phase change early next year.
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02/10/2025, 5:19 am EST
02/10/2025, 5:19 am EST

Dynamic Weather Pattern Across Brazil/Argentina Continues

The ECM 500 MB anomalies 15-day forecast indicates the dynamic upper air pattern continues. The subtropical ridge area splits, returning to home base, across the MHW locations. In-between the split, conditions favoring heavy rain to suppress the intense heat develops in Northeast Argentina/Uruguay centered on the 6-10-day period.
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02/09/2025, 7:40 pm EST
02/09/2025, 7:40 pm EST

Australia Climate Forecast is Wet East Coast Much of 2025

The Australia season 1-4 ahead outlook is updated. The forecast is valid for meteorological autumn 2025 through summer 2025-26. The forecast is based on an ENSO climate favoring La Nina, neutral Indian Ocean dipole, and the influence of marine heat waves either side of the continent. Forecast highlights include a persistent wet climate in southeastern Australia likely through next summer while next winter is warmer than normal.
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02/07/2025, 9:15 am EST
02/07/2025, 9:15 am EST

Upper Air Pattern Changes: Wetter Argentina

This week, strong subtropical high pressure stretching across mid-continent from marine heat waves either side of South Americ render extreme heat from Argentina to Southeast Brazil. However, latest forecasts split the subtropical ridge allowing weak low pressure to form over Bolivia which lifts tropical rains from northwest continent southeastward into Argentina during the medium range.
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