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02/26/2025, 2:00 pm EST
02/26/2025, 2:00 pm EST

U.S. Soil Moisture FEB-24 Vs. FEB-25, Expectations for Summer

The U.S. Drought Monitor reveals larger aerial coverage of drought risk across the U.S. during the onset of the final third of February this year versus 2024. Last spring, a wet regime erased Midwest dry soil conditions. This year, the meteorological spring forecast indicates above normal precipitation for the North-central and Northeast U.S.
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02/26/2025, 1:57 pm EST
02/26/2025, 1:57 pm EST

Skill Scores Forecast Models Including AIGS and Graph Cast

Four forecast models are considered to offer a broad view of forecast skill during the past 60 days for the northern hemisphere, North America, and Europe. The four processed considered are two physics-based models: ECM ENS and GFS plus two AI models: AI Graph Cast ECM ENS and AIFS. ECM ENS is selected due to the consistent highest skill score while GFS is reviewed due to high visibility.
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02/25/2025, 4:38 pm EST
02/25/2025, 4:38 pm EST

Dry-to-Drought Soil Conditions Cause Potential Excessive Heat Southwest & Central U.S. Summer 2025

The early meteorological summer 2025 U.S. soil moisture condition projects a large drought across the Southwest U.S. including the southern half of both California and Texas. Drought is also projected for much of the Atlantic Seaboard plus northern Florida. Dry soil conditions extend across the North-central U.S. plus parts of the Gulf Coast through the interior East U.S. and southern Florida.
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