The 5-day forecast has a different flavor this morning. Rafael remains forecast to stay well offshore. However, the storm slows down in the west-central Gulf of Mexico and is susceptible to a period of southwest shear ahead of a Central U.S. trough to briefly push Rafael northeastward over the weekend before lower atmospheric steering on the east side of a Mexico high pressure area guides Rafael back toward the southwest.

Rafael will turn westward over the next several days as a high-pressure area over the Florida Panhandle extends westward, albeit weakly to guide Rafael. By late weekend/early next week, high-pressure builds to the west of the storm providing a steering current that pushes Rafael toward Mexico.