In 2025, the ENSO forecast WAS neutral ENSO and possibly a second attempt at La Nina later next year. That possibility remains but is considerably weaker. Added to the potential scenarios of ENSO phase during the second half of 2024 is an El Nino analog and shift by ECMWF favoring Nino34 SSTA shifting into an El Nino.

A developing marine heatwave off the East Coast of South America is expected to continue strengthening while shifting southward toward and off the Argentina Coast. MHW's in this position during summertime are well-correlated to an upper low-pressure area near the southeast coast of Brazil. Subsidence on the back side of the low leads to a dry climate and increased drought risk in Argentina and possibly Western Brazil.