11/11/2024, 11:18 am EST
In the subsurface, the cool fuel to up-well to the surface and cause La Nina onset is trending weaker. The anomalous cool water in the equatorial East Pacific is about half (or less) the intensity of most La Nina episodes.
News
11/11/2024, 8:52 am EST
The Northwest Pacific tropical cyclone activity has recovered to near normal for the season featuring 23 tropical storms, 13 hurricanes, and 7 intense hurricanes. A late season surge in activity features 4 systems now including Tropical Storm Yinxing heading for North Vietnam, Typhoon Toraji departing the Philippines, WP27 forecast to become a typhoon heading northwest possibly toward Taiwan, and Man-Yi forecast to become a major typhoon later this week.
11/08/2024, 3:50 pm EST
The October-2024 Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) was -3.81, the strongest negative (cool) phase in the 1950-2024 record. Previously, the strongest monthly value was -3.55 observed in July 1955. The current record-strength -PDO is part of a 5-year cool phase beginning in January 2020. Additionally, the ongoing -PDO regime sustains the cool long-term cycle of PDO which began in the late 1990’s.
11/08/2024, 7:18 am EST
The 5-day forecast has a different flavor this morning. Rafael remains forecast to stay well offshore. However, the storm slows down in the west-central Gulf of Mexico and is susceptible to a period of southwest shear ahead of a Central U.S. trough to briefly push Rafael northeastward over the weekend before lower atmospheric steering on the east side of a Mexico high pressure area guides Rafael back toward the southwest.