News
11/14/2024, 11:46 am EST

ECM ENS Continues Highest Skill in Medium-range

The skill scores during the medium range by primary forecast models indicate ECM ENS is the top model. Recently, ECM extended from 10 to 15 days. Skill scores for ECM will be added for ECM in the 11-15-day period soon. Data is provided by CWG/SVWM.
11/14/2024, 5:38 am EST

Strong Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Brings High Impact Wintery Weather to U.S. and Europe!

Likely related to latent heat release of late season tropical cyclones in both the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific, a gathering of anomalous warm air aloft leading to a high-pressure block convenes over Greenland characteristic of a strong negative phase North Atlantic oscillation. In the middle latitudes, compensating cold trough patterns develop and replace the prevailing very warm climate of autumn 2024.
11/14/2024, 5:36 am EST

Marine Heatwave off Northwest Coast of Australia Linked to Unusually Hot Climate

During the 30-day period of Oct. 12-Nov. 11, 2024, an unusually hot climate spread across most of Australia featuring widespread 30-day departures from normal of +2C to +5C. The anomalous heat is driven by a titanic upper-level high-pressure ridge centered on central continent. The catalyst to the upper ridge, in-part, is due to warming influence on the middle troposphere by the presence of an emerging large and strong marine heatwave (MHW) off the northwest coast of Australia.
11/13/2024, 5:49 am EST

-NAO Causes U.S. and Europe Storms Including Early Season Chill for Europe

In Europe, an upper trough brings snow to Northern Europe to reverse the lack of early season snow in that region this weekend (Fig. 2). By Monday, a wintery feel with wind is emerging across U.K., North-central Europe, and Northeast Eurasia. A mid-next week rainstorm emerges over West-central Europe with trailing cold air that could cause some snow in U.K. and possibly as far south as Northern Spain.