The strongest transient convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) since January 2024 is forecast to shift east of the Dateline to close October. Short-term effects of MJO are in the tropics including intensifying Tropical Cyclone Kong-Rey forecast to become a category-4 major typhoon heading for Taiwan.

In Europe, an evolving sharp negative phase of the Scandinavia index in early November indicates an amplified upper ridge over Northwest Eurasia and a compensating trough into Southeast Europe. The upper trough brings stormy and much cooler weather to Europe to Southwest Russia in the medium range.

After a series of GFS model runs indicating an East U.S. Coast tropical cyclone risk in early November, possibly disrupting voting day, forecast models are now in agreement the tropical system is likely to stay away from U.S. Atlantic Seaboard. The new forecast creates another problem, a heavy rainfall episode in early November centered on Texas and the southern Great Plains.