Climate Impact Company cut the North Atlantic seasonal TC forecast to 17 storms, 11 hurricanes, and 6 intense hurricanes on Aug. 27. The North Atlantic environment is forecast to be exceptionally supportive of above too much above normal activity for the next 10 weeks. Operational (model) forecasts doubt that level of activity. The CIC forecast vs. climatology is a good range of expectations for SEP, OCT, and NOV 2024.

ALERT drought conditions are widespread across the Black Sea region and worsening during late summer. Drought is widespread from Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia. Slowly, the week 2-4 outlook erodes the high pressure causing the accelerating drought during late meteorological summer.