Provided is an explanation of the primary climate drivers of the just-completed meteorological summer climate pattern across South America. Emphasized is the influence of the (record warm) SSTA pattern in the tropics on the intra-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the latent heat release form the attendant convection leading to subtropical high pressure in the subtropical to mid-latitudes across South America.

Based on a constructed analog which identifies: 1.) The evolution of a warming mid-latitude ocean during the past 10 years, 2.) An enhanced warming of the mid-latitude oceans during the past 5 years, and 3.) Decelerating El Nino to La Nina climate, a projection of 500 MB anomalies and attendant soil moisture conditions for Western Russia and the U.S. is provided.