News
03/09/2023, 8:40 am EST

March 2023 Global Soil Moisture Observations and Outlook

During early 2023, soil moisture conditions improved greatly from California to the Upper Midwest U.S. The Argentina drought worsened, and re-emerging drought appeared in France. Dryness appeared in East-central Australia and Northeast India.
03/08/2023, 3:19 pm EST

U.S. FEB-23 and DEC/JAN/FEB 2022-23 State Rankings

Winter 2022-23 ranked 18th warmest on record. The entire East and most of the South U.S. were in the MUCH ABOVE normal category which included an all-time-record warm winter season in Massachusetts while 17 states were in the top 5 warmest all-time. The West U.S. was moderately chilly averaging in the top 1/3 all-time coldest winter seasons.
03/07/2023, 7:59 am EST

ECM ENS Maintains The California Storm Track

The ECM ENS 15-day percent of normal precipitation forecast yield additional impressive amount across California. The storminess extends inland across the Great Basin to the North-central U.S. mostly as snow. Interestingly, forecast models maintain the stormy pattern in California despite an easing of the sharp -PNA pattern of the past couple weeks.
03/06/2023, 5:23 am EST

Conflicting Signals on ENSO Although La Nina Demise Likely

Suddenly, the equatorial East Pacific subsurface is warming and a strong MJO phase_8 is in the 2-week forecast, each a sign of La Nina's demise and increased risk of El Nino ahead. However, the required warming of the Northeast Pacific is in reverse...strong cooling! There are conflicting signals in the Pacific SSTA scheme right now regarding ENSO's future although La Nina demise is likely.