News
11/16/2021, 1:09 pm EST

Sharp Negative Phase North Atlantic Oscillation/Scandinavia Index

The negative North Atlantic oscillation (-NAO) is impressive…surging toward -3.00 later this month. Implied is storminess and following cold into the East. The 12Z GFS has less of a storm for next week in the Northeast. The Scandinavia Index drops to -4.00 to -6.00 which indicates an unusually cold trough for Northwest Eurasia which will include cold temperatures and snow for that region.
11/15/2021, 4:53 pm EST

Strong Negative North Atlantic Oscillation Ahead!

Today’s North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) forecast intensifies into the strong negative phase for next week signaling a high latitude blocking pattern forcing a Northeast U.S. storm featuring extreme intensity. Both the GFS and ECM project 970 MB low-pressure which could produce another intense wind event for the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England States for early-to-middle of next week, just before the Thanksgiving Holiday.
11/15/2021, 4:14 am EST

Last Week Was Soaking Wet In Eastern Australia

Widespread heavy rain occurred last week in Australia. The aerial coverage and intensity of the rainfall was likely the wettest in the seasonally wet climate pattern currently occupying the continent. Rainfall amount of 4-6 in. was common in southeast Queensland and (more) spotty in eastern New South Wales.
11/11/2021, 12:53 pm EST

Why The Polar Vortex Pattern Is Inevitable During January 2022

Inevitable is the likelihood of the feared polar vortex pattern in January 2022. Why? Simply stated, there is precedent for persistent high-amplitude high-pressure ridge areas forming over large regions of much warmer than normal SSTA during the past 10 years in the winter season. Implied by the International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) are high-amplitude high-pressure ridge areas across very warm regions of SSTA just east of the Dateline and across western and central North Atlantic. In-between the two ridge areas, the atmosphere (always looking for balance) compensates by allowing a cold upper trough (polar vortex) to form over central North America.