Regional SSTA patterns are attached to local weather regimes including Argentina/Brazil and Australia heading into meteorological summer in the southern hemisphere.
ost prominent in today’s medium-range forecast are the reversal in the North Atlantic oscillation/Pacific North America pattern(s) beginning later this week and indicating warmth in the West fades while emerging across the eastern half of the nation. The -PNA pattern should also lead to an increase in rain and snow in California in the extended-range.
Climate Impact Company continues to stress recent emergence of warm SSTA regions outside of the tropics commonly referred to as “warm blobs” and their influence on the regional (and hemispheric) climate patterns which are as important as the influence of ENSO. The character of climate patterns associated with “Warm blobs” is slow-moving and therefore more impactful.
Given the tendency for Covid-19 spread with established cold weather regimes in high population areas the importance of cold weather monitoring has (of course) increased. The 15-day outlook for Europe identifies an established cold weather risk which could be enhanced by developing snow cover and supported by a super negative Scandinavia Index pattern centered on days 6-10 ahead!