September 2021 - Page 2 of 3 - Climate Impact Company

09/12/2021, 12:18 pm EDT

Surprisingly, GFS ENS Matches/Exceeds ECM ENS Skill in Medium-range Past 30 Days

In a surprise, the GFS Ensemble has equaled or exceeded ECM Ensemble in medium-range skill scores (of 2-meter temperature forecasts) during the past 30 days. Regions of the high demand energy East U.S. produced better GFS 9than ECM) ENS skill scores - a rare event!

09/11/2021, 10:16 am EDT

Texas and Mid-Atlantic Coast Tropical Threats Emerging

Several new issues have emerged in the tropics – all of which could impact the U.S. The first is Tropical Disturbance 94L. This system will enter the Bay of Campeche as a low-pressure system today. Over the warm waters of this region, 94L should have no problem strengthening to a tropical depression in 24 hours and a tropical storm within 36-48 hours.

09/10/2021, 8:18 am EDT

Tropical Storm Likely Southwest Gulf of Mexico later Weekend/Early Next Week

A tropical system emerging in the Bay of Campeche is possible over-the-weekend. If so, a northwest turn toward the southern Texas coast is expected. The western Gulf of Mexico water surface is somewhat warmer than normal and could lead to a suddenly rapid intensification of a tropical system.

09/09/2021, 3:48 pm EDT

GFS Indicates Potential Hurricane Off Florida Coast Days 11-15

In today's midday update the 12Z GFS indicated a potential major hurricane east of Florida in the 11-15 day period. Models have shown a consistent risk of a tropical feature in this zone at this time much of this week.

09/09/2021, 12:50 pm EDT

Hottest Summer On Record According to NOAA!

According to NOAA the meteorological summer (JUN/JUL/AUG) season of 2021 was the hottest on record given the 127-year climatology. Most of the West U.S. including California set all-time records for hottest summer on record. Nationally, the summer 2021 season was also wet ranking 8th wettest on record. Mississippi observed their wettest summer on record.

09/09/2021, 5:39 am EDT

T.S. Mindy Weakens Inland. Heavy Rains Ahead for Texas/Louisiana.

Mindy became the 13th named storm of the 2021 tropical cyclone season late yesterday and is now inland weakening to a depression. The next significant tropical rainfall event for the U.S. begins this weekend and lasts through next week on the coast of the northwest Gulf of Mexico. 5-10 in. of rain (or more) is possible although not directly related to a tropical cyclone.

09/08/2021, 4:49 pm EDT

Tropical Disturbance 91L Is Strengthening

Tropical Disturbance 91L is drifting northeastward toward the Florida Panhandle and is strengthening. There is a slight risk 91L could become a tropical storm before making landfall early tomorrow on the Florida Panhandle.

09/08/2021, 4:45 pm EDT

Where We Stand On The Tropics As Peak Of Season (September 10) Arrives

According to Colorado State University, seasonal activity so far in 2021 is about twice normal. Based on the rate of activity so far, seasonal forecasts issued earlier this summer may not be sufficiently active. NOAA's upper limit of their range forecast indicate up to 9 additional tropical storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 intense hurricanes.

09/06/2021, 3:32 pm EDT

Subsurface Equatorial Pacific Is Cooling…Supports La Nina Onset Q4/2021

In the weekly ENSO diagnostics report we take a look at the continued cooling in the subsurface equatorial Pacific Ocean signaling La Nina onset for Q4 of 2021.

09/03/2021, 5:01 am EDT

The Contribution of Warm SSTA to the Intensity of “Ida”

The warm SSTA pattern in the northern Gulf of Mexico just-prior to Ida's passage and off the U.S. East Coast as the remains of Ida traversed the northern Mid-Atlantic States provided a significant contribution to the storms unprecedented intensity over such a large (inland) stretch.

09/02/2021, 10:09 am EDT

Climate Forecast Catalysts to Produce a Wet Spring Forecast for Brazil Are Not Developing

A leading catalyst for wet climate forecasts across parts of Brazil during spring 2021 is a projected westward shift of warmer than normal SSTA in the South Atlantic tropics toward the Northeast Brazil coast indicated by most SSTA models. During the past several weeks this previously robust warm SSTA region has trended cooler and is not showing the westward shift as previously indicated. The wet spring forecasts remain but confidence has lowered.

09/02/2021, 9:37 am EDT

Monitoring Hurricane Larry Closely

Hurricane Larry is forecast to reach category-3 major hurricane intensity BEFORE reaching 84-85F water surface in the western North Atlantic basin. The concern is a larger and more intense storm may resist (initially) a north to northeast turn leaving the U.S. East Coast at risk of a nearby major hurricane.